Taking Spring With a Grain of Salt

Written by Hamish Costello on April 4, 2011 – 5:12 pm

The line is so good that it’s worth sharing. In providing profiles of some of the lesser-known teams in the F.B.S., Bill Connelly at Football Study Hall gives statistical analysis of both the season past and what to expect in 2011 on both sides of the ball. In his Louisiana Tech profile, Connelly says the following about quarterback Colby Cameron’s spring showing in Sonny Dykes’ high-flying passing offense. In a wonderfully succinct summary of all spring game performances, Connelly says the following:

Spring game stats are completely and totally worthless, but well, throwing for 275 yards and five touchdowns is still better than not throwing for 275 yards and five touchdowns.

Beautiful. And Connelly raises a delicate point for fans and objective bystanders alike: What can we really take from spring ball?

We can take big picture things, but when it comes to small picture – individual numbers, like Cameron’s – we need to take a step back. What are the big picture items? We’re talking changes in philosophy, offensively or defensively, or how a new coach begins to dictate tempo while providing his team with a new message.

Louisiana Tech is an interesting example. The offense didn’t immediately take off under Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin in 2010, though that was to be expected: such wholesale changes don’t take place overnight, with growing pains often continuing into the following season and, perhaps, beyond. Dykes’ offense has the bonus of being so quarterback friendly, on the other hand, that we can’t take much of anything away from Cameron’s performance.

Let’s take another random example – one of a team far closer to the national elite. Up in Nebraska, Bo Pelini opted to dismiss coordinator Shawn Watson in favor of then-running backs coach Tim Beck, with the goal of installing a more fast-paced, speed-predicated offense. Can Nebraska take anything from how quarterback Taylor Martinez fares in the spring?

Go back to above: it’s not about the small picture but the grand scheme. For the Cornhuskers, it’s about seeing how quickly the offense gets in and out of the huddle, or what packages the offense uses on certain downs, or how many different looks the offense can present to future Big Ten defenses. Nebraska fans will get a taste of this offense’s future in the spring, but don’t put any stock in how Martinez fares statistically.

Then there’s the elephant in the room: coaches want their players to succeed on the spring, particularly on offense. Why? One, and more importantly, such a stance allows the offense to develop confidence – confidence that might manifest itself come September. Two, fans pay attention to the numbers; the superb is expected during the spring, so poor offensive showings – take a look at the hand-wringing over Tajh Boyd’s uneven start at Clemson – are dissected, piece by piece.

Think Jimbo Fisher doesn’t know this? With E.J. Manuel finally set to take over under center for the Seminoles, Fisher is ensuring that his new starter develops that all-important confidence during the spring. So far, so good: Manuel tossed three scores in Florida State’s most recent scrimmage, with Fisher remarking that Manuel “was in total control of what was going on… Its like youre very comfortable with him in charge with your unit.”

So let’s take those spring numbers with a grain of salt. Then again, as noted earlier today, Garrett Gilbert stumbled this past weekend despite driving the first-team Texas offense against a batch of defensive second-teamers – in short, even when coaches do everything to ensure that their quarterbacks succeed, things don’t always come together according to plan.

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